Local green ammonia production to substitute 850 kt annual fossil fertilizer imports, reducing costs (USD 290-355M/year) and subsidies (KES 3.55-45.5B in 2022). Enhances food security, doubles yields (from 65 kg/ha vs. global 146 kg/ha), supports 75% workforce in agriculture (20%+ GDP), and enables regional exports via AfCFTA. Geothermal potential for 8 Mt/year ammonia; jobs (300+ per project, >25,000 by 2030 with USD 1B+ investments).
High costs (EUR 2,967/t green vs. USD 1,200–1,600/t grey; CAPEX EUR 150M for 111 MW PV + 27 MW electrolyser); water scarcity (14 L/kg H2, projected 235 m³/capita by 2025); regulatory gaps (no GH2 in ASTGS); import reliance (75% market by 5 importers); external shocks (price volatility); no existing H2 industry.
KenGen 5 MW Olkaria pilot (feasibility ongoing, scale to 100 MW by 2025); FFI 300 MW ammonia (COP27 MoU, domestic/grid export by 2025/26); Maire Tecnimont 150 ha Nakuru plant (geothermal/solar, 25% import substitution); MET/IPS/Westgass 100 MW (200 kt/year, feasibility done). GIZ baseline (2022-2023), EU/GTAF support; GH2 Working Group (KEPSA/KAM); roundtables (Q1-Q3 2024); blending quotas (Q3-Q4 2024).
Phase 1 (2023-2027): 100,000 t/year nitrogen fertilizers; Phase 2 (2028-2032): 400,000 t/year. Business case: 7,366 tpa NH3 requiring 1,300 tpa H2. By 2025: 100,000 t/year GH2; 2030: 300,000–400,000 t/year.
GH2 as reducing agent in DRI-EAF for green steel, decarbonizing manufacturing (18% GDP); supports Vision 2030, jobs (>25,000 by 2030), upstream chains, regional exports. Renewables lower LCOH (4-5 USD/kg); aligns with LTS for H2 in steel.
High costs (GH2 4-5 USD/kg vs. grey <2 USD/kg; WACC 13%); no H2 base; off-taker uncertainty; infrastructure needs; policy gaps (no MTP IV inclusion); global competition/CBAM; finance diversion (US IRA).
No specific projects; LTS/GIZ baseline (2022-2023) identify GH2-DRI; MITI/KEPSA Working Group; Phase 1 demos; DFIs (EBRD/KfW) for PtX. Devki Steel's Kwale factory (2022, 2,500 jobs) potential for integration.
Competitive from late 2030s; LTS: Increased H2 in large industries by 2050. Global: 0.9 Mt H2 in iron/steel (2021). By 2025: Policy inclusion; no quantified Kenya demand.
GH2 derivatives for e-kerosene/SAF, decarbonizing transport (8% GDP, 12.3 Mt CO2e 2019); uses curtailed RE (244 GWh geothermal); regional hub (Jomo Kenyatta Airport); aligns with LTS/NDCs.
Scaling costs; demand uncertainty; regulatory hurdles; fossil reliance; CO2 capture; global finance (US IRA); no GH2 in strategies; smaller regional traffic.
1 GW GH2-SAF project (European/Kenyan firms, wind/solar); KCAA/GIZ SAF workshop (2022); Kenya Airways SAF flight (2023, 2% blend). GIZ H2-PDP; LTS: 30% electric/H2 vehicles by 2050; Phase 1 partnerships (Q3 2024-Q3 2025).
LTS: 30% H2/electric transport by 2050; global NZE SAF share. By 2025: Project development; 2030: 300-400 kt/year GH2 including SAF.
E-ammonia/methanol for shipping; Mombasa/Lamu as bunkering hub; exports to EU/Middle East; 76% freight shift; Green Port Policy; aligns with LTS (15% fossil replacement).
Costs 3-4x higher (e-ammonia $1,121/t vs. LSFO); infrastructure gaps; weak demand; port environmental impacts; WACC 13%; geopolitical dependencies.
HDF Energy 180 MW solar + 500 MWh H2-storage (Mombasa, 2027); SOWITEC 12 MW methanol (8 kt/year); IMO net-zero; Lamu pilots; GIZ NDC factsheet (2021); AHP corridors.
IMO 5% zero-emission fuels by 2030; methanol 5 kt/year imports (1 kt H2 equiv.); Phase 2 scaling; global 688 Mt ammonia by 2050. By 2025: Pilots; 2030: Regional exports.
H2 as kiln fuel/reducing agent, replacing 40% coal (LTS); decarbonizes hard-to-abate emissions; supports urbanization/infrastructure; Rift Valley geothermal proximity; green parks.
High intensity/costs; integration barriers; no mandates; CCS needs; tariffs oppose decarbonization; water/land constraints; global finance shifts.
LTS targets 40% H2/electricity by 2050; GIZ H2-PDP pilots; Devki clinker plant (80% exports); Energy Efficiency Strategy; Working Group industry reps.
LTS: 40% coal replacement by 2050; no specifics; part of industrial H2 shift. Production up 62% (2018-2022). By 2025: Policy updates; 2030: Scaling.
Green Hydrogen Knowledge Management Platform
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