Kenya Market Value Chains

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Architecture of Kenya Market Value Chains for GH2 Project in Collaboration with GIZ Germany

This advanced infographic and statistical page explores the multifaceted value chains impacted by green hydrogen (GH2) in Kenya's economy, aligned with the Kenya Green Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap. It covers agriculture, steel processing, aviation, marine, and cement sectors, detailing opportunities, challenges, risks, progress, and demand projections up to 2025 and beyond. Interactive features include search, filters, expandable sections, and dynamic charts for projections. Data synthesized from official strategies, GIZ reports, and recent 2025 updates.

Agriculture Sector (Fertilizer/Ammonia)

Opportunities

Local green ammonia production to substitute 850 kt annual fossil fertilizer imports, reducing costs (USD 290-355M/year) and subsidies (KES 3.55-45.5B in 2022). Enhances food security, doubles yields (from 65 kg/ha vs. global 146 kg/ha), supports 75% workforce in agriculture (20%+ GDP), and enables regional exports via AfCFTA. Geothermal potential for 8 Mt/year ammonia; jobs (300+ per project, >25,000 by 2030 with USD 1B+ investments).

Challenges & Risks

High costs (EUR 2,967/t green vs. USD 1,200–1,600/t grey; CAPEX EUR 150M for 111 MW PV + 27 MW electrolyser); water scarcity (14 L/kg H2, projected 235 m³/capita by 2025); regulatory gaps (no GH2 in ASTGS); import reliance (75% market by 5 importers); external shocks (price volatility); no existing H2 industry.

Progress Made

KenGen 5 MW Olkaria pilot (feasibility ongoing, scale to 100 MW by 2025); FFI 300 MW ammonia (COP27 MoU, domestic/grid export by 2025/26); Maire Tecnimont 150 ha Nakuru plant (geothermal/solar, 25% import substitution); MET/IPS/Westgass 100 MW (200 kt/year, feasibility done). GIZ baseline (2022-2023), EU/GTAF support; GH2 Working Group (KEPSA/KAM); roundtables (Q1-Q3 2024); blending quotas (Q3-Q4 2024).

Demand Projections

Phase 1 (2023-2027): 100,000 t/year nitrogen fertilizers; Phase 2 (2028-2032): 400,000 t/year. Business case: 7,366 tpa NH3 requiring 1,300 tpa H2. By 2025: 100,000 t/year GH2; 2030: 300,000–400,000 t/year.

Steel Processing Sector

Opportunities

GH2 as reducing agent in DRI-EAF for green steel, decarbonizing manufacturing (18% GDP); supports Vision 2030, jobs (>25,000 by 2030), upstream chains, regional exports. Renewables lower LCOH (4-5 USD/kg); aligns with LTS for H2 in steel.

Challenges & Risks

High costs (GH2 4-5 USD/kg vs. grey <2 USD/kg; WACC 13%); no H2 base; off-taker uncertainty; infrastructure needs; policy gaps (no MTP IV inclusion); global competition/CBAM; finance diversion (US IRA).

Progress Made

No specific projects; LTS/GIZ baseline (2022-2023) identify GH2-DRI; MITI/KEPSA Working Group; Phase 1 demos; DFIs (EBRD/KfW) for PtX. Devki Steel's Kwale factory (2022, 2,500 jobs) potential for integration.

Demand Projections

Competitive from late 2030s; LTS: Increased H2 in large industries by 2050. Global: 0.9 Mt H2 in iron/steel (2021). By 2025: Policy inclusion; no quantified Kenya demand.

Aviation Sector (Sustainable Aviation Fuels)

Opportunities

GH2 derivatives for e-kerosene/SAF, decarbonizing transport (8% GDP, 12.3 Mt CO2e 2019); uses curtailed RE (244 GWh geothermal); regional hub (Jomo Kenyatta Airport); aligns with LTS/NDCs.

Challenges & Risks

Scaling costs; demand uncertainty; regulatory hurdles; fossil reliance; CO2 capture; global finance (US IRA); no GH2 in strategies; smaller regional traffic.

Progress Made

1 GW GH2-SAF project (European/Kenyan firms, wind/solar); KCAA/GIZ SAF workshop (2022); Kenya Airways SAF flight (2023, 2% blend). GIZ H2-PDP; LTS: 30% electric/H2 vehicles by 2050; Phase 1 partnerships (Q3 2024-Q3 2025).

Demand Projections

LTS: 30% H2/electric transport by 2050; global NZE SAF share. By 2025: Project development; 2030: 300-400 kt/year GH2 including SAF.

Marine Sector (Shipping Fuels)

Opportunities

E-ammonia/methanol for shipping; Mombasa/Lamu as bunkering hub; exports to EU/Middle East; 76% freight shift; Green Port Policy; aligns with LTS (15% fossil replacement).

Challenges & Risks

Costs 3-4x higher (e-ammonia $1,121/t vs. LSFO); infrastructure gaps; weak demand; port environmental impacts; WACC 13%; geopolitical dependencies.

Progress Made

HDF Energy 180 MW solar + 500 MWh H2-storage (Mombasa, 2027); SOWITEC 12 MW methanol (8 kt/year); IMO net-zero; Lamu pilots; GIZ NDC factsheet (2021); AHP corridors.

Demand Projections

IMO 5% zero-emission fuels by 2030; methanol 5 kt/year imports (1 kt H2 equiv.); Phase 2 scaling; global 688 Mt ammonia by 2050. By 2025: Pilots; 2030: Regional exports.

Cement Sector

Opportunities

H2 as kiln fuel/reducing agent, replacing 40% coal (LTS); decarbonizes hard-to-abate emissions; supports urbanization/infrastructure; Rift Valley geothermal proximity; green parks.

Challenges & Risks

High intensity/costs; integration barriers; no mandates; CCS needs; tariffs oppose decarbonization; water/land constraints; global finance shifts.

Progress Made

LTS targets 40% H2/electricity by 2050; GIZ H2-PDP pilots; Devki clinker plant (80% exports); Energy Efficiency Strategy; Working Group industry reps.

Demand Projections

LTS: 40% coal replacement by 2050; no specifics; part of industrial H2 shift. Production up 62% (2018-2022). By 2025: Policy updates; 2030: Scaling.

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